San Francisco
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
20  Alex Short SR 31:18
220  Mohamed Aziz JR 32:17
273  Ben Alcock JR 32:25
288  Edward Shepherd SR 32:26
634  Ryan Driscoll SR 33:10
765  Caleb McClain SO 33:25
883  Hugh Nicklason FR 33:34
National Rank #36 of 312
West Region Rank #9 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 2.0%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.5%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.5%
Top 10 in Regional 96.7%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Alex Short Mohamed Aziz Ben Alcock Edward Shepherd Ryan Driscoll Caleb McClain Hugh Nicklason
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 764 31:37 32:11 32:29 32:44 33:44 34:36
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 666 31:16 32:31 32:05 32:02 33:09 33:35 33:09
West Coast Conference 10/28 729 31:10 32:21 33:02 32:16 32:46 33:29 33:26
West Region Championships 11/11 693 31:23 32:06 32:18 32:24 34:06 33:10





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 2.0% 23.9 577 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2
Region Championship 100% 8.8 245 0.5 2.8 11.0 21.5 29.4 31.6 3.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Short 92.7% 23.7 0.4 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7
Mohamed Aziz 3.2% 119.5
Ben Alcock 2.2% 160.5
Edward Shepherd 2.1% 175.3
Ryan Driscoll 2.0% 223.0
Caleb McClain 2.0% 234.0
Hugh Nicklason 2.1% 242.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Short 6.3 0.8 6.1 9.5 11.9 11.0 8.8 6.2 5.0 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.0
Mohamed Aziz 43.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2
Ben Alcock 51.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4
Edward Shepherd 52.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5
Ryan Driscoll 83.2
Caleb McClain 95.2
Hugh Nicklason 103.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 0.5% 60.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 5
6 2.8% 40.0% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.7 1.1 6
7 11.0% 5.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 10.4 0.6 7
8 21.5% 21.5 8
9 29.4% 29.4 9
10 31.6% 31.6 10
11 3.3% 3.3 11
12 0.1% 0.1 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 2.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 98.0 0.0 2.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Furman 4.4% 2.0 0.1
Dartmouth 0.7% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.1% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0